What kind of sales can we expect of Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild?

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breath-of-the-wild.jpg.optimalThis past week, The Game Critics announced their awards for the recently concluded E3 2016, with The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild winning both the top console game and best in show. While a preview is far from a finished game, E3 did give us some hints of what to expect out of the game when it hits the market.

If we check out my post from a few years ago, you can see that the previous 2 times that Nintendo won the E3 best in show award was also for Zelda games, both of which sold quite well. The first time Nintendo won, it was for Perfect Dark which didn’t perform nearly as well. The reasons why though (and there are many) are for another blog post another day! Anyways, the combination of winning best in show and Zelda being an A-list franchise seem to indicate good things for future sales.

The last time Nintendo released a Zelda game on 2 consoles at the same time, it was Twilight Princess on both the Game Cube and Wii. The Game Cube was of course, Nintendo’s previous poorly-received console before the Wii U. So it is possible that like with the Game Cube, Nintendo sees the Wii U as basically done and is ready to transition to the next console with more confidence (like with the Wii).

As we know from the busts that were named best in show:

  • The final product can be designed poorly
  • Pricing can be set incorrectly

However with Breath of the Wild, these likely will not be issues:

  • Nintendo is known to delay the launches of their Zelda games for what feels like FOREVER. But when the final products come to market, they are almost always worth the wait.
  • It is extremely unlikely that downloadable content (DLC)- the driver behind pricing that could be problematic- will be a focal point of Breath of the Wild:
    • Zelda games have never been focused on DLC to drive the game’s revenue
    • Typically when a game does have a big DLC component, it is highlighted as such in previews (i.e. at E3)

The last piece of the puzzle is release date:

  • If Breath of the Wild is a launch title for NX, the combination of a new Nintendo system and a Zelda game will give the game a sales bump- much like:
    • Mario 64+Nintendo 64
    • Wii Sports+Wii

Regardless of how good the console is (the Nintendo 64’s sales paled in comparison to the Wii’s), awesome game+console launch= sales.

  • Conversely, if the NX isn’t very good and Breath of the Wild comes out some time after the NX’s release:
    • There is a high risk that the install base is not large enough to drive sales.
    • We can’t assume that even if Breath of the Wild comes out later, consumers will just buy the console later to play Breath of the Wild. We saw this with Super Mario 3D World, which was fantastically reviewed, but came out for a console (Wii U) that few people actually had.
      • Note also that Mario 64 sold 11.89 million units while Super Mario 3D World has sold 4.2 million units.

Most signs point to Breath of the Wild generating tons of sales but to minimize risk, Nintendo’s best move is to probably push for a release at the same time as the NX. I can’t wait to play!

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